Arnold Joseph Toynbee’s view of China
汤因比(Arnold Joseph Toynbee,1889-1975)是英国著名的历史学家,在其代表作《历史研究》中,汤恩比充分展露了他开阔的世界观和人文胸怀,他以独特的历史视角,分析了人类文明的起源、成长、衰落、解体和各文明间的接触,并提出了对未来人类文明发展模式的构想。根据汤恩比的观点,历史沿袭的大一统的国家局面是中国送给世界的礼物。在谈到人类的未来时,汤恩比毫不吝惜其对中国长期维系大一统国家局面的肯定,并对中国未来的发展寄予厚望。他在《展望21世纪》(Forecast 21st Century) 一书中说道:
“将来统一世界的大概不是西欧国家,也不是西欧化的国家,而是中国。并且正因为中国有担任这样的未来政治任务的征兆,所以今天中国在世界上才有令人惊叹的威望”。这段话后来被称之为“汤恩比预言”。
Arnold Joseph Toynbee (1889-1975) was a famous British historian. In his masterpiece "Historical Studies", Toynbee reveals fully his broad world view and humanistic thinking. With a unique historical perspective, he analyzes the origin, growth, decline, disintegration and contact between civilizations of human civilization and puts forward the idea of the future development model of human civilization. According to Toynbee, the historical situation of the country’s unification is a gift from China to the world. When talking about the future of mankind, Toynbee does not hesitate to affirm China's long-term maintenance of a unified state, and has high expectations on China's future development. In his book "Forecast 21st Century", he stated:
"The future of reunifying the world is probably not by a Western European country, nor a Western European country, but China. because China has the symptoms of bearing such a future political mission. Today, China has an amazing prestige in the world." This passage was later called "Toynbee’s Prophecy."
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